Das Börsengeschehen wird ständig von Analysten begleitet, die Anlegern mit ihren Prognosen zukünftige Trends vorhersagen wollen.
Da jedoch die Finanzmärkte äußerst unberechenbar sind, stellt sich die Frage, welchen Wert die Visionen dieser Marktbeobachter eigentlich für die Anleger haben?
Über Analysten-Prognosen und Trefferquoten
Für viele Anleger sind Analysten und deren Vorhersagen für den Börsenhandel unverzichtbar.
Sie haben Fragen zu dem Thema? Sprechen Sie uns an!
Entweder verfügen sie über wenig Zeit oder besitzen keine ausreichenden Kenntnisse, um aktiv und gewinnbringend in das Marktgeschehen einzugreifen. Andere scheuen das Risiko von Verlusten und suchen daher nach Hinweisen für vermeintlich sichere Investitionen. Dabei vergessen sie allerdings einen wichtigen Punkt: Entwicklungen an den Börsen lassen sich nicht vorhersagen, die Prognosen der Analysten verbessern die Trefferquoten kaum.
Ein praktisches Beispiel ist der deutsche Aktien-Index Dax, zu dem viele bekannte Analysten im vergangenen Jahr ihre Prognosen veröffentlicht hatten. Keine der vielen Vorhersagen kam nur annähernd an den Abschlusswert von 9.552 Punkten heran, welche der Dax Ende 2013 aufzeigte. Die Experten prognostizierten Abschlusswerte zwischen 7.200 und 8.200 Punkten und lagen deutlich daneben.
Zukunftsvisionäre können keine Marktstimmungen auswerten
Die Vorhersagen der Analysten sind meist sorgfältig aufgebaut und von fundamentalen Analysen gestützt. Sie orientieren sich an Terminen, zu denen Wirtschaftsdaten bekannt gegeben werden und versuchen, die Auswirkungen dieser Zahlen auf die Anlegerstimmung zu prognostizieren. Doch genau da bewegen sie sich selbst im Nebel, denn Marktteilnehmer lassen sich nicht berechnen.
Die Akteure an den Finanzmärkten reagieren extrem unterschiedlich auf verschiedene Ereignisse. Manche Meldungen lösen markante Kursbewegungen aus, andere wurden sowieso erwartet und sind bereits eingepreist. Es ist die Anlegerstimmung, die letztendlich entscheidet, doch die kann niemand sicher vorhersagen.
Was können Anleger also mit Analysten-Prognosen anfangen?
Es ist sicher von Vorteil, die eigenen Ansichten mit denen von Fachleuten zu vergleichen. Die Vorhersagen zum Börsengeschehen sollten gelesen, zur Kenntnis genommen und im Kopf gespeichert werden. Denn eigenes Engagement, beobachten der Charts und letztendlich auf den Verstand hören, sind die besten Garanten für erfolgreiches Handeln an der Börse.
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